22 trends and predictions for the Spanish real estate market in 2026

22 trends and predictions for the Spanish real estate market in 2026

Looking for an overview of the Spanish real estate market?

In this article, we’ve poured over leading sources of information on real estate trends in Spain, housing prices and expert forecasts for 2026.

This includes the trends & predictions from:

• The Colegio de Registradores (official body managing Spain’s land registry)

• The Consejo General del Notariado (official body of Spanish notaries)

• The Instituto Nacional de Estadistica (Spain’s national institute of statistics) 

• CaixaBank Research

• Banco de España (Spain’s central bank)

• Ministerio de Vivienda y Agenda Urbana (Spanish Ministry of Housing

If you’d like to dig into the data, we recommend you locate reports from the sources above.

But for a quick overview, find 22 important insights compiled below.

Cottage Properties is a luxury real estate agency in Catalonia, Spain, with an exclusive portfolio of country houses, masias, castles and luxury properties for sale.

22 Statistics on the real estate market in Spain in 2026

Spanish real estate trends in 2026

Market trends

1. Property sales growth: There was a 1.5% decrease in property transactions in 2025, when compared to 2024. There were 705,357 property sales in 2025, which was 10,826 less than in 2024, according to the Colegio de Registradores.

2. Apartment and house sales: According to the Registradores de España, 21.48% of home sales in Q4 2025 were single-family homes, which represents an increase of 0.59%, when compared to Q3 2025. Collective housing therefore lost relative weight, falling to levels below 80%, with a weight of 78.52%. The historical high in the share of single-family homes was recorded at the end of 2020, at 22.52%.

3. Registered transactions: The total number of property sales in Q4 2025 increased 2.3% from Q3, coming in at a total of 178,270. This represents the second highest quarterly figure since Q3 2007, meaning that property sales have reached (and even exceeded) pre crisis levels. Compared to Q4 2024, this represents an increase of 3.3%.

Housing price trends

4. Price per square meter: According to the Consejo General del Notariado, the average house price per square metre reached €1,902 in 2025, representing an increase of 8.5%, when compared to 2024. Supposedly last year was the first year average house prices per square metre reached levels that hadn’t been matched since before 2007, so this figure indicates that house prices are continuing to rise above and beyond pre financial crisis levels.

5. Housing Price Index (IPV): The Housing Price Index, which tracks price changes in new and second hand homes, rose by 15% in Q4 2025, when compared to Q4 2024. This indicates a sustained increase in property values, according to the Instituto Nacional de Estadística.

6. Repeat Sales Index (IPVVR): The Housing Price Index for Repeat Sales, which tracks the transaction price of the same properties over time and is published by the Colegio de Registradores, grew by 2.6% in Q4 2025, when compared to Q3 2025. When compared to Q4 2024, this represents an increase of 16.6%, a new historic maximum and a figure almost 30% higher than it was at the time of a previous peak in 2007. Indeed, since the post-crisis low of 2014, prices have increased by more than 110%.

7. Supply shortage: House prices have skyrocketed in recent years, primarily due to the lack of available housing. According to research by CaixaBank, the housing deficit accumulated over the past four years amounts to some 515,000 homes, which rises to 765,000 if we only consider finished homes (as opposed to permits granted) and set aside all properties to be used for other purposes. This figure was equivalent to 4% of the total housing stock in 2024 and meant that new housing was only able to accommodate 20% of new households.

8. New home construction: The construction sector is showing signs of recovery, although not enough new homes are being built to meet the demand created by a growing population. In the year prior to May 2025, 132,000 permits for new homes were approved, representing a year on year increase of 13%. Meanwhile, according to the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), the population increased by 473,848 in 2025, primarily due to immigration, leading to the creation of 226,279 new households.

Foreign buyer trends

9. Foreign demand: In 2025, 97,300 houses were sold to foreign buyers, making up 13.8% of all houses sold that year. 705,000 homes were sold in total, representing the most transactions in a single year since 2008, while the total number of foreign buyers reached a new record high. 4.6% more homes were bought by foreigners in 2025, when compared to 2024. Most of these were bought by Europeans.

10. Top provinces: According to data from the Colegio de Registradores, in Q4 2025, the provinces with the highest percentage of foreign purchases were: Alicante (42.91%), Balearic Islands (31.47%), Málaga (31.11%), Santa Cruz de Tenerife (26.44%), Girona (24.8%), Murcia (20.74%), Las Palmas (20.31%), Almería (16.69%) and Tarragona (16.11%).

11. Foreign nationalities: Q4 2025 data shows that the largest groups of foreign buyers in this quarter were British (7.93%), Dutch (6.77%), German (6.65%), Moroccan (5.78%), Romanian (5.45%), Italian (5.32%), French (4.93%) and Belgian (4.38%). Indeed, 57.32% of all purchases were made by people from the EU, compared to 18.05% from the rest of Europe, 8.69% from Africa, 6.73% from Asia, 5.63% from South America and 3.58% from the rest of the world.

12. Non resident buyer trends: Foreign residents accounted for 60.9% (43,306 properties), while non residents made up the remaining 39.1% (27,849 properties) of all purchases made by foreigners in 2025. Compared to 2024, purchases by foreign residents went up by 6.4%, while transactions by non residents went down 4.1%. This marks a shift from the year before, where both groups experienced similar growth in sales.

Investment trends

13. Rental yield and price growth: The Banco de España hasn’t released a figure yet for 2025, however, an average from the first three quarters of last year suggests that the average rentabilidad de vivienda (rental yield plus price variation) was around 15.8% and showed steady quarter on quarter growth. This represents an increase from 2024, in which the yearly average was 14.6%, demonstrating growing returns for property investors.

14. Rental yield comparison: In 2025, gross rental yield (annual rental income as a percentage of property price) stood at 3%, only slightly less than returns from Spain’s 10 year government bonds, which stood at 3.3%. While gross rental yield went down slightly from the year before, in which it was 3.3%, it still means that real estate remains an attractive investment, even when compared to traditional financial instruments. Indeed, the return on deposits from households and NPISH (Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households) was only 1.6%.

Spanish real estate market predictions for 2026

Market predictions

15. Property sales forecast: CaixaBank estimates that 683,000 properties will be sold in Spain in 2026, which marks a decrease from 2025, in which 714,237 property transactions took place. While 2025 was a record year, in which more than 700,000 homes were sold for the first time since the pre-crash peak in 2007 (775,300 sales), this prediction represents a slowing down in the rate of sales.

Housing price predictions

16. Home price outlook: CaixaBank expects house prices to continue to grow in 2026, however at a slightly lower rate. CaixaBank predict growth of 5.7% in 2026, which is much less than the recorded growth in house prices in 2025, which stood at 12.7%. These figures may be inaccurate; for example, CaixaBank expected growth of only 9.0% in 2025, while the reality was much higher. Indeed, Idealista expect growth to be closer to 15%.

17. Mortgage improvements: Low interest rates and high levels of employment have sustained demand and encouraged banks to lend. Fixed rate mortgages are now available at under 2% and mixed-rate products below 1.5%. Idealista expect the mortgage market to remain broadly stable in 2026, with banks offering competitive products, although perhaps at slightly less attractive levels than some of those seen recently.

18. New build price growth: According to research by CaixaBank, in the year prior to May 2025, 132,000 new homes were approved, which represents a year on year growth of 13%. This trend is expected to continue to increase, due to the high demand for housing and the intention of the property development sector to grow the current housing stock. However, the increase in supply is still not enough to absorb demand or close the current deficit yet it is likely that it will moderate price increases in the new build market.

Foreign buyer predictions

19. Golden Visa impact: Spain’s ‘Golden Visa’ program, launched in 2013, granted residency to citizens from outside the EU who made significant investments in Spain, for example, through buying property worth over €500,000. Between 2013 and October 2024, 15,149 golden visas were granted in connection to real estate investments. As of April 2025, this scheme was ended in order to combat the unprecedented growth of house prices and the lack of properties available to residents. However, CaixaBank predicts it will have little impact on foreign demand as such purchases represent a small fraction of the market.

20. Potential threats to foreign buyers from outside the EU: In January 2025, the government announced measures to introduce a property tax of 100% on non-resident buyers from outside the EU. Pedro Sanchez, Spain’s PM, hopes the new tax will stop non-resident foreign buyers (apart from those from within the EU) from buying property in the country they don’t intend to use, thereby freeing up housing stock to meet the housing shortage for people actually living in Spain. While this proposal would change the housing market massively, it is still under discussion and is unlikely to be made into law.

Investment predictions

21. Potential threats to short term rentals: More and more people have been buying properties to rent out on platforms like Airbnb. As a result, property prices have been increasing, often pricing out locals. In response, local governments have been placing tighter restrictions on the licenses needed to rent out a property on a short term basis and removing properties from platforms that don’t have the proper paperwork. According to a report by Reuters, the number of short term rentals for Ibiza, a popular tourist destination, dropped by almost half in 2025, when compared to the year before. However, in cities like Malaga and Almeria, supplies of tourist accommodation have continued to increase. Across Spain, the number of listings in the second half of last year declined by 4%, marking the first nationwide fall in listings. These restrictions could limit the potential for rental returns on houses bought for these purposes.

22. Incentives for long term rentals: The 2023 Housing Law meant that landlords who rent out their properties to long term tenants could expect not to pay income tax on half of the money they earn from that property. This percentage could be increased to 90% if, for example, the property has been renovated, they rent to young people (18-35) or the property is in a high demand area and the rent is lowered. This year, Spain’s PM announced that landlords could be expected to pay no income tax at all on any net rental income gathered from properties in which rental contracts were renewed without any rent increase. This means that while taxes and restrictions on holiday rentals are increasing, there are potential financial incentives to be gained from renting our properties at affordable rates to long term tenants.

Who are we?

Cottage Properties is one of Spain’s leading estate agencies specialising in the sale of masias, country houses, castles and luxury properties in Catalonia, Spain. We are fully API-certified real estate agents and provide a comprehensive service, especially for foreign buyers.

Frequently asked questions

What was the average price of property per square meter in Spain in 2025?

The average house price per square meter reached €1,902 in 2025, which represents an 8.5% increase compared to 2024. This sustained increase means that average house prices are now continuing to rise above pre-financial crisis levels.

What is the forecast for the Spanish property market in 2026?

Property sales are expected to slow down in 2026, with CaixaBank estimating 683,000 transactions, a decrease from 714,237 in 2025. Despite the slowdown in sales, house prices are predicted to continue growing, with CaixaBank expecting growth of 5.7% and Idealista predicting growth closer to 15%.

How is the housing supply shortage affecting property prices?

The primary cause of the recent skyrocketing house prices is the lack of available housing. Research by CaixaBank indicates the housing deficit accumulated over the past four years amounts to 765,000 finished homes, and new construction has not been enough to absorb demand.

How active are foreign buyers in the Spanish real estate market?

Foreign buyers reached a new record high in 2025, purchasing 97,300 houses, which accounted for 13.8% of all homes sold. The largest groups of foreign buyers in Q4 2025 were British (7.93%), Dutch (6.77%), and German (6.65%).